How to bend the climate curve in 2020
Claire Wordley
Claire studied Zoology at the University of Sheffield, and completed a PhD on the impact of agriculture on tropical bats at the University of Leeds. She has since worked at the RSPB and University of Cambridge, and is now juggling freelance writing and activism. Follow her on Twitter @clairefrwordley
2020: a critical year
The words ‘bend the curve’ should be on everyone’s lips this year. To have a two in three chance of staying under 2°C, and a mere coin-toss chance of limiting global heating to 1.5°C, greenhouse gas emissions must peak in 2020. They must then drop drastically, every year, til we hit zero – ideally before 2040. Allowing emissions to grow for just five more years uses up more of our tiny carbon budget, and makes the necessary changes go from ‘extremely challenging, but probably doable’ to ‘possibly impossible.’
This change of direction – from growing emissions year on year to shrinking them – is called ‘bending the curve’. It represents the drastic U-turn we need just to avoid the worst impacts of a heating world. When I’ve shown the image below to people who care about climate change but only know a little about it, they were shocked at how fast and how soon we have to change course. If you are too, read on, as I’m going to discuss some of the main physical, social, and political levers to push on this year with all our might.
The emissions curve and how it needs to bend; figure from World Resources Institute.
Pressure in politics
2020 is not just important because of the unforgiving physics of our emissions budget – it is also a key year for political process. At the November UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 26) in Glasgow, countries can review their promises to limit emissions under the Paris Agreement. So far, only seven countries have plans that would keep the world under 2°C (see image below); globally, current plans put us on track for about 3°C (and, due to tipping points, heating likely won’t stop there). If you live in a country that is not at least 2°C compatible, especially a richer country like Canada, New Zealand, Norway, or an EU nation, then campaigning and protesting for more ambition ahead of the November summit is one of the most important things you can do.
From Climate Action Tracker.
There is also the issue that the world’s second largest emitter, the USA, is set to withdraw from the Paris Agreement at the Glasgow meeting. If a Democratic candidate wins the 2020 Presidential election, they would almost certainly bring the USA back into the agreement; in the USA, campaigning for a Democrat may be the most impactful action that the 76% of Americans who see climate change as a problem or crisis can take in 2020.
Pushing for more climate ambition in politics will have most impact in the countries who emit the most, who present themselves as climate leaders, and who have the most power. As Germany assumes presidency of the EU from July-December, it is a vital place to call (through petitioning elected representatives and through civil protest) for the EU to raise its climate commitments. Other Europeans can join Germans in the streets in Leipzig this September, where the EU-China summit provides a chance to pressure China for stronger climate commitments.
The Council of Europe meeting in Brussels in mid-June, expected to focus on climate change, is another key opportunity for civil society to demand the EU ups its ambition in November. Those in the UK, who no longer have a say in EU policy, can rally to Glasgow and ensure lawmakers from across the world see a huge civil society presence demanding more ambitious targets at COP 26.
2020 milestones
From Oxfam
The emissions curve does not just need to bend, it needs to bend hard. We need to reduce emissions by at least 7.6% per year, every year, til we hit zero. Even regions who have cut emissions fall well short of this – last year, the EU showed an emissions reduction of just 1.7%. Wealthier countries, who have emitted more historically and who have more resources, should be cutting emissions at more like 10% per year, starting this year. Reducing the impact of the richest is essential for climate action to be effective and equitable (you can find out how rich you are compared to the rest of the world on Giving What We Can).
The milestones we need to hit by the end of 2020 to bend the emissions curve were identified three years ago. They can be seen in the image (below) from the World Resources Institute, along with the progress towards meeting them by 2019. Scientists called actions linked to these key milestones ‘no brainers’; they include eliminating fossil fuel subsidies, not building new coal power stations, and starting the process of retiring old ones.
The 2019 progress report found a few bright spots; renewables make up 25% of the world’s electricity supply, and at least $200 billion per year is being invested in climate action. For the rest of the 2020 targets, we are way off course.
These six milestones provide a starting place for those both inside and outside the political process. For example, campaigners with Ende Gelände and other groups are trying to stop Germany from building a new coal power plant. This may seem like a local issue, but directly addresses the 2020 milestones, and is thus a key lever for bending the curve. Indeed, I recently asked South African activist Rehad Desai how people in Berlin could best help people in his nation; he answered, ‘stop Germany from burning coal.’
All work to address these milestones matters. For example, you might sit on your city council and be able to push for cheap or free accessible public transport, zero emissions housing regulations, or to set a city-wide decarbonization goal. Alternately, you might work in an industry where you can push for a roadmap to carbon neutrality.
These milestones, however, are only the beginning of what needs to be done. All fossil fuel, not just coal, need to be retired and not expanded. A growing network of ‘gastivists’ – activists against gas – are protesting against putting in new infrastructure so that gas, with its huge warming impact, can’t be used as a ‘transition fuel’. I recently met Esteban Servat, who leaked documents showing the environmental impact of fracking in Argentina; he was pushing Europeans to protest against the current EU drive to use that fracked gas.
Tipping the balance
As individuals, it can feel daunting, even overwhelming, to see the scale of the challenge ahead. That is why a recent study on social tipping points is so important – it shows pressure points where people have a chance to make a huge difference. Experts identified six ‘social tipping elements’ that they think could have disproportionate effects in spreading new technologies, behaviours, and social structures. The more of these ‘tipping elements’ we can press at once, the greater the chance of seeing change.
They consider the social tipping elements that could be ‘tipped’ most quickly as divestment from fossil fuels and disclosure of greenhouse gas emissions. Divestment campaigns, which started in universities, have had some staggering results and spread to faith groups, pension funds, and insurance companies. If just 9% of investors refuse to put money into fossil fuels, it could tip the system towards renewables. Running a divestment campaign is a hugely valuable contribution.
Disclosure is another key tool. Imagine if labels on our food did not just tell us how many calories it contained, but also the greenhouse gas emissions per serving. Political disclosure can also trigger change; the publication of links between regional politicians and RWE, Germany’s largest energy company, helped to spur a huge (and ongoing) movement against plans to clear Hambacher Forest for a coal mine. Similarly, Esteban Servat’s ‘EcoLeaks’ project prompted protests by tens of thousands of people in Argentina. Working on disclosure projects of all sorts matters.
Tipping elements that could take longer to trigger, but which lay the groundwork for deep emissions cuts, are decentralized energy generation and building carbon neutral cities. Creative decentralization projects are increasing, and the Transition Towns Movement and the Energy Cities Association can provide a framework to make your city carbon neutral.
Reykjavik, Iceland, the only city to run on 100% renewable energy. Photo from MoreToTheShell, Pixabay.
Removal of fossil fuel subsidies, climate education, and recognition of the moral implications of fossil fuels could take decades to reach a ‘tipping’ point, but even before they become mainstream they could pave the way for profound change.
A total removal of fossil-fuel subsidies could lower annual carbon emissions by 4.4% – this is also a ‘no-brainer’ to achieve in 2020. But yet we still subsidize destruction; the power of the fossil fuel lobby has kept this insane practice alive despite repeated pledges by G7 nations to stop subsidies over the last decade. These sorts of delays, engineered by the hugely powerful fossil fuel industry, are deadly. Fighting to limit the rights of these mega-corporations, and their access to political process (like the Sunrise Movement campaign to stop politicians from taking fossil fuel money), is vital.
Lack of knowledge likely stops many people from engaging in climate action. In a 2007 survey from one British town, over half of respondents said they didn’t know enough about climate change to have an opinion on it. Massive education and media campaigns can shift public knowledge and action; climate education may also help to counter the unfortunate trend that highly educated people use more resources.
But we know that the facts alone are not enough. Shifting how society views the moral implications of fossil fuel use is likely essential to averting the worst climate scenarios. The social and moral norms around us affect our individual behaviour and the law, but can change dramatically; the arguments people used to defend slavery – and those used successfully by a small group to argue for its abolition – are still instructive today.
Social conventions and behaviour can potentially be changed by around 25% of the population. It is likely that this 25% must be committed, and include well-connected, influential people. Fortunately, there are signs that more and more people are influenced by social movements like Fridays for Future, Extinction Rebellion, and the Sunrise Movement.
People are more concerned about global heating than ever, and there is increasing public discourse on the need for transformative action. The number of people joining climate protests has also grown dramatically in the last year; around four million people globally joined the climate strike in September 2019, smashing previous records. At the same time, campaigns have seen Swedes take fewer flights out of concern for the climate, potentially starting wider social changes in fossil fuel behaviour. Joining and supporting campaign and protest groups making the moral argument for change matters more than ever.
It seems important to note that almost every major climate protest breaks the record of the previous one. I have participated in 5 iconic climate change protests. Each one, at the time, was in some way 'the largest ever.' If you feel like something is growing....it is. pic.twitter.com/skfXpRx2Ws
— Dr. Elizabeth Sawin (@bethsawin) September 21, 2019
Act in 2020
Even if you’ve never done anything for climate change before, and never plan to again, make 2020 the year you act. There are clear levers – physical, social, and political – to act on. Which of these you try to influence will vary depending on your location, inclinations, and skill set. Wherever you are, you can look at the milestones, the political process, and the social tipping elements and see something key that you, along with others, can start tackling.
None of these actions, whether addressing the 2020 milestones, 2020 political process, or the social tipping points, is sufficient alone. Getting even a few victories is likely to be hard. But together, these actions could unleash the transformation towards a better world.
Extinction Rebellion protesters block a bridge near the seat of the German government, the Reichstag, in October 2019. Photo: Claire Wordley